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$SBET and $BMNR are in an interesting spot.
At $22, $SBET trades around mNAV 1.2.
At $63, $BMNR sits near mNAV 2.0.
Two approaches make sense
1) High mNAV play ($BMNR) - Higher mNAV = more ETH per ATM share, faster ETH/share growth, boosted by high liquidity (Tom Lee’s velocity + liquidity). That growth justifies a higher multiple. Saylor already mentioned Strategy won't issue ATM under mNAV 2.5, only using prefs/buybacks instead, which means low mNAV slowing growth.
2) Low mNAV value ($SBET) — At mNAV 1.2 (PBR ~1.2), downside is small (~0.2). As it nears 1.0, bargain buyers likely step in, supporting price.
Both are valid. Key overlooked fact:
ETH Treasury is still nascent, and both started this strategy only 1~2 months ago. Neither has tapped CBs or prefs yet, but both have the scale/management to execute multiple capital-raising levers.
Which means there are plenty of financing options/skills still to come that could boost their stock price.
Likely outcome: when one’s valuation rises, capital flows to the other, as there will still be expectations for the other side (again, it's still early stage). But in 1~2 years, consensus will likely cement toward one - though it's unclear which one yet
In addition, liquidity will stay concentrated in top-2 players—smaller ETH Treasuries lacking leverage over Capital Market won’t see the same flows (just like BTC & ETH vs. alts).
So it seems to me that, at this point, $SBET’s lower mNAV offers better mid-term risk/reward, though I hold both. (and will hold both)
Our emotions follow price - but historically, acting against that instinct has worked best in the long term.
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