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What the Republicans are doing right now on gerrymandering is despicable - but there should be real soul searching on the Dem side for why Democrats were so unfocused and epistemically unsound when we had a chance to fix this four years ago.
1.9.2022
@dylanmatt @albrgr The most frustrating thing to me about the voting rights debate of 2021 is that it focused so much on voting access relative to gerrymandering.
It helped avoid intra-caucus discord (large sections of the Dem caucus were quietly against redistricting reform) but had drawbacks.
@asthanaprav Both blue and red states gerrymander but on net the house currently has a 1.5% pro-Republican bias and it's about to get substantially worse due to Trump's historically quite unusual multi-state push.
24.7.2025
Contrary to popular belief, the current house map has a substantial pro-Republican bias - Trump won 52.3% of house seats with 50.7% of the vote did 1.5% better in the pivotal 218th seat than he did overall.
@HarmstonVe56329
15 tuntia sitten
@asthanaprav Both blue and red states gerrymander but on net the house currently has a 1.5% pro-Republican bias and it's about to get substantially worse due to Trump's historically quite unusual multi-state push.
@brianbeutler @mattyglesias Regardless of how you feel about Manchin/Sinema, during the whole HR 1 process we repeatedly lied to the public and lied to our donors and shouted down experts who tried to tell the public the truth.
I think that’s bad for its own sake.
1.9.2022
@dylanmatt @albrgr It reminded me a lot about this from @MattBruenig - there were completely insane numbers floating around on the topic and it was impossible to argue with them without getting personally attacked and it led to both bad decisions and bad external consequences
@CathleenIsabel3 If you're genuinely interested in the extent to which Democratic and Republican states gerrymander and the net effect - I made an interactive web applet that measures how bad each state is on two measures of partisan bias and explaisn what they are!
15 tuntia sitten
@asthanaprav Both blue and red states gerrymander but on net the house currently has a 1.5% pro-Republican bias and it's about to get substantially worse due to Trump's historically quite unusual multi-state push.
@brianbeutler @mattyglesias Big dollar donors were being told that Manchin was open to things right up until maybe a month before the floor vote.
Maybe they were just getting lied to - if so that's bad too!
The whole thing was epistemically terrible and I don't see why you're changing the subject.
@jerrymayEwriter @tom_paine1737 The net partisan impact of not counting undocumented immigrants in the census is ~ zero and it honestly reflects poorly on the analytical capacity of the conservative movement that basically none of them seem to realize it
31.7.2025
Republicans like to imagine that removing illegal immigrants from the Census would massively benefit them, but this simply isn't true.
Here's the difference relative to actual 2020 reapportionment. Net 0 change in D vs. R states.
@steve__case @jerrymayEwriter @tom_paine1737 Republicans have made giant gains with low income non-white voters in the last eight years so it doesn’t have a partisan impact anymore or if anything the signs have flipped - both coalitions have not adopted yet - campaign finance is similar
@SpeakingBee @tom_paine1737 @asthanaprav I encourage you to look through this!
24.7.2025
Contrary to popular belief, the current house map has a substantial pro-Republican bias - Trump won 52.3% of house seats with 50.7% of the vote did 1.5% better in the pivotal 218th seat than he did overall.
@SaveFarrisLSU @joeykatzen If you go through this state by state it is clear that Republicans are net beneficiaries
24.7.2025
Contrary to popular belief, the current house map has a substantial pro-Republican bias - Trump won 52.3% of house seats with 50.7% of the vote did 1.5% better in the pivotal 218th seat than he did overall.
@HFlashmanVCKCB
24.7.2025
Contrary to popular belief, the current house map has a substantial pro-Republican bias - Trump won 52.3% of house seats with 50.7% of the vote did 1.5% better in the pivotal 218th seat than he did overall.
@Dbarenholtz1
14 tuntia sitten
@CathleenIsabel3 If you're genuinely interested in the extent to which Democratic and Republican states gerrymander and the net effect - I made an interactive web applet that measures how bad each state is on two measures of partisan bias and explaisn what they are!
@VirginiaHo33518
14 tuntia sitten
@CathleenIsabel3 If you're genuinely interested in the extent to which Democratic and Republican states gerrymander and the net effect - I made an interactive web applet that measures how bad each state is on two measures of partisan bias and explaisn what they are!
@agentunknownuno
14 tuntia sitten
@CathleenIsabel3 If you're genuinely interested in the extent to which Democratic and Republican states gerrymander and the net effect - I made an interactive web applet that measures how bad each state is on two measures of partisan bias and explaisn what they are!
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