Something else I’ve been thinking about more recently is on the topic of the long end blowing out in response to Trump’s puppeteering of the Fed, which is the rational (and maybe growing consensus) expectation In some sense, if everyone ‘knows’ we have a progressively more dovish Fed inbound, a more dovish than ‘necessary’ Fed = a lower Fed Funds rate than ‘necessary’ = higher long-term inflation expectations = higher long-end yields / Bond Vigilantism / ‘we told you mortgage rates would go up if you cut rates too much’ But everyone should then also assume that higher inflation expectations and higher long-end yields (and higher inflation itself) will not necessarily be met with a hawkish pivot under a Fed full of Trump stooges; the more probable policy move will be an attempt to force the long end lower through some form of YCC, be it explicit or shadow Is there a scenario where we just skip the 10y/30y yields blowing out and the market just assumes the Fed is gonna either buy the bonds directly or mandate other entities to buy them — and is this the scenario where you *do* get a more durable dollar bear market (I say this as someone who still bullieves in the dollar secular bull cycle)? TL;DR nominal rates across the whole curve end up lower in 6 months because the market just front runs the most likely post-Powell outcome