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I have been worried about China's surplus, imbalances and excessive fx intervention since 2005 -- and China was a long way from the technological frontier back then

Dec 17, 00:07
Why didn’t US-based analysts — such as Brad Setser — complain about China’s approach to trade when its trade surplus was in goods that *are not* threatening American technological and economic supremacy?
We could discuss at length “trade imbalances” and currency depreciation, but that sidesteps the real issue. The real issue is that Washington is spinning a story about China’s approach to trade being “unfair” only when it is losing the competition. There were no complaints about China’s export surge when China was firmly subordinated in American supply chains.
I’m completely fine with Washington advocating for a more active industrial and trade policy in the US. But be honest about the motives: the truth is that the US is deeply uncomfortable with another major country embarking on a process of sovereign development that doesn't align with US interests. Don’t spin the BS about China being an “unfair” trading partner.
I can be accused of a long of things, but I am an OG imbalancista -- I worried about it in the run up to the GFC, and after the GFC I worried that the US didn't recover on the basis of exports and that China's investment driven reduction in its surplus could not be sustained
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