U.S.–China talks won’t lead to full supply chain decoupling. history shows total bans only fuel domestic build-up; drip-feeding keeps dependence. even with 85% of global rare earth refining—the U.S. military’s lifeblood—China will likely keep supplying, just as the U.S. still sells chips to China. but the prisoner’s dilemma means no true “G2”: each guards its core advantages. US won't give up weapons supply chain and china won't surrender financial sovereignty. this managed rivalry could offer long-term plays in alternative supply chains, gray-zone trade, and resource cycles.