Ethereum: The Cup Theory This is a WIP theory & you should draw your own conclusions on how this inflects around today's ETH price @ $4450 I started ideating the "Cup Theory" over the last week; the notion being that there is a critical difference in motivation that skews bid patterns in today's TCos differently than we have seen in the past. If you believe that Saylor's presence was critical in creating price discovery for BTC last Nov-Dec (I do), then logic follows that ETH TCos are the new bid to track as the primary engine for all "crypto" risk since mid-July I have iterated in the past that Saylor is a price-"insensitive" buyer in that he is a "kid in a candy store": when he receives capital, he spends it with little care for execution, foot print and timing. In doing so, his behavior resembles that of a "floor" creator: creating the appearance of "too big to fail." He is what I refer to as the "Gen 0 TCo" The most recent TCos are different. They are not as price-insensitive as their predecessors - they are "price-seeking." Meaning that they are not only sensitive to reserve asset price - they benefit deeply from it via the upstream valuation of the TCO vehicle. I propose they have 2 goals: create plunge protection when possible, and also create reflexivity when possible (bursting through "resistance"). Through acting this way, the notion of the "virtuous flywheel" is protected. This assumes capital abundance and that TCos are in the driver's seat of dictating price action In my view this is partially evidenced by how mNAV theoretically compresses or expands in a vacuum (if [reserve asset] price goes down, ceteris peribus, the mNAV goes up - and vice versa). This creates a unique market phenomenon: where as opposed to a linear distribution of risk formed by average price-sensitive buyers/sellers - speculators such as you or I - that typically manifests (reticent to buy panic/bottoms and eager to buy momentum & tops) - I suggest that these new TCos have very asymptomatic demand curves. Using a poker analogy: villain's bet pattern is to under- or over-bet polarized scenarios, rather than range betting a standard size The conclusion is therefore that price-seekers are very fine-tuned to "how the chart looks" - and so steps up to defend critical junctures (RE: $3000, $3300-3500, and now $4000). This leaves 1 Achilles' Heel - the gaps in the middle, which are formless. This is especially exacerbated if capital reserves are low (the flywheel begins unwinding). Retail (ETFs) must be the ones to fill in these gaps - and if they do not - price reverts quickly due to the lack of willingness by these TCos to deploy TLDR: TCos try to create price discovery; if stuffed (1-2 attempts fail) they understand that cash is fungible and will safeguard capital for later to create a floor - doing so creates stability in both TCo share price and reserve asset share price This forward thinking is unlike the gen 0 or gen 1 TCos (eg. Saylor) who have not shown a propensity to think 1 step ahead in reserving capital for future deployment, and just market buy / TWAP mindlessly