As of now, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this month has reached 100%, which can be said to be a done deal. The suspense is whether the cut will be 25 basis points or 50 basis points. Currently, the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 89.9%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 10.1%. Regardless of how much the cut is, once the rate cut restarts, it will lead to a significant surge. A 50 basis point cut could ignite market enthusiasm, causing a direct rise from 9.18 until the end of the month before a pullback. Although there is still volatility in the short term, there is no systemic risk. For instance, ETH has not broken below 4200 or above 4500; this 300-point range can be traded repeatedly. It is still recommended to focus on low long positions, as shorting can become addictive. If one shorts at a low point and a sudden surge occurs, it can easily lead to being trapped at the bottom. For example, short positions below 3900 have been trapped for a long time, and unless there is significant negative news, it is expected that they may only be released after December 4.