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Bull Theory
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2026年會有加密貨幣ALTSEASON嗎?
今天,ISM指數為52.6%,是過去40個月來的最高讀數。這使得美國製造業重新進入擴張期。
歷史上,強勁的altseason通常是在ISM指數開始上升後才會開始。在2017年和2021年,最大的altseason都是在ISM指數突破55%之後開始的。
我們目前還沒有達到55%。但這是宏觀條件阻礙altseason開始減弱的第一個跡象。
這就是一切的開始。


Bull Theory2025年12月2日
THIS IS THE REASON WHY WE DIDN’T SEE ALTSEASON YET.
The most reliable altseason indicator just came in and the number isn’t great for now.
The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for November came in at 48.2, below expectations of 49.
That means manufacturing activity is still contracting.
Quick reminder of what ISM PMI actually measures:
It’s a monthly survey of 400+ manufacturing companies, where they answer basic questions like:
➠ Did new orders increase or fall this month?
➠ Is production rising or slowing down?
➠ Are you hiring or cutting staff?
➠ Are supplier deliveries faster or slower?
➠ Are inventories building up or running low?
All of these responses form a single number:
• 50+ = expansion
• Below 50 = slowdown
Today’s 48.2 reading clearly shows the economy hasn’t turned upward yet.
Here’s why this matters for crypto, especially alts:
In both previous cycles, ISM had a very clear relationship with big altcoin runs:
➠ 2017 AltSeason → ISM above 55
➠ 2021 AltSeason → ISM above 55
Altseasons didn’t happen in weakness, they happened when manufacturing, demand, and hiring were showing strong momentum.
Right now, ISM is still far from that level.
But the important part is what comes next:
• Rate cuts in 2026
• Looser financial conditions
• Potential policy changes
• Better liquidity across the system
These are the ingredients that can gradually push ISM back above 50, and eventually toward the 55 range where previous altseasons formed.
Today’s number doesn’t change the long-term outlook, it simply shows the economy hasn’t picked up yet.
If ISM starts trending upward over the next few months, that’s when the early signals for a 2026 altseason become meaningful.
For now, the data confirms one thing:
We’re still in the waiting for expansion phase not the altseason phase yet.

錢真的會在黃金達到高點後轉向比特幣嗎?
是的,這種情況以前發生過。
在2020年8月,黃金達到2075美元的高點,並在接下來的4週內下跌了近10%。比特幣也跟隨黃金,從12000美元崩跌了近20%,降至9800美元。
這一波動讓大多數人對BTC感到恐慌。
但在接下來的8個月裡,從2020年9月到2021年4月,比特幣從9825美元飆升了559%,達到64850美元,而黃金在這8個月內下跌了15%。
資本從黃金轉向風險資產是這一瘋狂漲勢的重要原因。
這一波動背後的另一個宏觀信號是ISM。
在2020年7月,ISM指數上升至50%以上,顯示經濟擴張。今天,ISM指數為52.6%,再次穩固在50以上。
所以這一情況與我們在2020年8月看到的非常相似。
上週,黃金(可能達到高點)在5600美元左右,然後下跌了近20%。在同一時間內,比特幣也下跌了15%。
隨著ISM在50以上,黃金可能達到高點,而比特幣已經修正,我們可能會在接下來的幾個月看到資金轉向風險資產。

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