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I remember when $SBET launched, I was debating with a friend whether buying SBET was a better deal than outright ETH
I was pretty confident that buying SBET there was potentially dangerous because the mNAV was 6x
- If you had bought $ETH on that day, you would be up 80% today
- But if you had bought $SBET on that day, you would still be down between -40% and -60%
That being said, so many unpredictable and irrational things happened in between :
- $SBET first went up 3x to touch $120, and probably traded close to 20x mNAV at some point
- It then went down -73% when the euphoria settled down, BEFORE dumping another -75% in one hour when they announced that early investors shares were unlocked
- Then it traded flat around $10 at a very attractive mNAV for almost 3 weeks
- And then pumped almost 5x in 2 weeks, as $ETH also began its run to $4800
- SBET is now down -50% from its local top, while $ETH is up +25% in the same timeframe
$SBET (and treasury companies in general) can go very quickly from OVER-VALUED to UNDER-VALUED, and people will want to buy to buy it at the tops and selling at the bottoms.
The mNAV of these companies can very well go close to 1 and then bounce hard, you shouldn't over-index on the most recent PA because this might be very misleading.
Hold your convictions loosely on these instruments

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