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I hate tariffs as much as the next person. But this is very unlikely to be true.
Back-of-the-envelope: If tariffs raise 0.8% of GDP then would need output to be 4% lower to offset (because 20% tax rate * 4% output = 0.8%). That is 10X most estimates of output loss.
14.8. klo 03.01
Crucial point from @RameshPonnuru:
"If the tariffs reduce economic growth, lost income and lost corporate tax revenue have to be subtracted from those extra tariff revenues. It’s entirely conceivable that the net effect on revenues is marginal or even negative."
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