Just In: Tariffs are starting to cause pain for consumers, but the impact is modest so far. CPI inflation was 2.7% (y/y) in July, which was below expectations. For the month of July alone, inflation ticked up 0.2%. A big decline in gas prices helped to offset rising costs of airline fares, recreation, household furnishings, and used cars. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) hit 3.1% in July. -->First time above 3% since February.