July CPI is the big release this week. Core prices are expected to have risen 0.31%, which would bring the 12-month increase to 3.1% (from 2.9% in June and 2.8% in May). Headline prices are expected to have risen 0.24%, which would lift the 12-month measure to 2.8%.

ERRATA: Barclays has core CPI at 0.29% for July and headline at 0.24%. My initial chart incorrectly transposed those figures. I regret the mistake.