"The Social Transformation of Prediction Markets" Most prediction markets are now more like tools designed for professionals. Users need to first clarify their interests, find the corresponding prediction market, evaluate the winning rate, and confirm that they have the advantage of information before placing bets. This is efficient for knowledgeable users, but not friendly to ordinary users. The entire design defaults to the user's expertise, clear goals, and rational judgment. This really aligns with analysts and veteran users. But I think this model limits the room for prediction markets because it assumes that users are only engaged to capture excess returns. I think there should be another model: user participation is for expressing opinions. Prediction markets have the dual attributes of an information tool and a social platform. On such a platform, beliefs can be translated into actual actions, where every bet is a public statement and every position is an expression of a position. What will the "Douyinization" of the prediction market look like? We can imagine such a social platform: each dynamic is associated with the corresponding prediction market, and the overall interactive experience is similar to Douyin - infinite scrolling, algorithmically recommended content, and user-independent subscriptions. In addition to regular likes and forwards, users can also directly open positions in the associated market. With this design, users no longer need to actively search for predicted targets. Based on your interests, behavioral data, and social connections, the system automatically pushes you to topics that may be of interest. Each swipe of the screen can trigger capital participation in an idea, event, or trend. Users don't need to deliberately look for areas with information advantages. The system will intelligently recommend relevant markets, such as you may swipe: "Can ETH/BTC break 0.03 this week? "Will Trump replace Powell before the end of the month?" "Will OpenAI release GPT-5 this year?" "Will [an Internet celebrity] update content this week?" This way, each of your bets becomes a public social profile. From profit-seeking to trustworthiness: prediction markets as identity expressions In this model, predictive behavior is no longer simply pursuing excess returns (alpha), but has evolved into a way of identification. When you casually bet $5 on a platform, the motivation is often not to be convinced that you have an information advantage, but to show: "I belong to the AI technology faction", "I am a die-hard of a certain team", or "I follow geopolitical developments". This kind of expression of views endorsed with real money is more convincing than the written statements of traditional social media. Just like shaping personas through posting and retweets, prediction markets allow you to build verifiable "credentials of belief." Every bet is a footnote to your worldview. Over time, these transaction records will form a unique reputation map: Who is market-forward? Who really does what they say and do? Who is indeed a domain expert? All the answers are clear. Achieve non-sensory participation The current prediction market is like YouTube, a huge database of predictions by topic, covering various predictions such as politics, cryptocurrency, sports, etc., and users need to search for content. This model caters to professional traders, analysts, and institutional users, as it replicates the standard workflow of "ask questions, analyze probabilities, and open positions." But the problem is that this mechanism requires users to come with a clear purpose. It assumes that every visitor has formed a clear judgment and is ready to trade. This preset creates a natural barrier to participation, keeping most regular users out. It is difficult for mainstream users to maintain this high level of engagement sustainably. Douyin's success has taught us a lesson: it actively identifies user preferences through algorithms, rather than passively waiting for users to clarify their needs. In the early days, many people thought it was just a "short video version of YouTube", and this innovation seemed insignificant. But it is the characteristics of "short and fast" that create advantages that are difficult for other platforms to replicate: instant gratification, real expression, and viral spread. The key to Douyin's creation of a new category is to eliminate the decision-making burden of users. You don't even need to know what you want to watch, the system will continue to learn and push what you really care about. Betting becomes a conversational mode This social prediction makes market engagement as natural as everyday communication. It automatically presents topics you care about and invites you to take a stand with real money. Most importantly, it completely removes the decision-making burden of "what should I predict". When prediction markets are integrated into the personalized feed, they are no longer just a tool for traders, but a part of popular discussion about hot events, internet memes, and pop culture. Betting behavior no longer requires complex analysis, but more like: "This is how I see it". This fusion of socialization and prediction will create new forms. The most active markets may not be major issues like the presidential election or the Fed's interest rate, but the hottest topics of the moment. KOLs drive trading volume, and pop culture attracts attention. In such a scenario, people's primary motivation for betting is no longer the potential gain, but to prove: "This is where I stand, my opinion, my identity." conclusion Prediction markets are changing the way people express themselves. When every point of view needs to be backed up with real money, the expression becomes more authentic and believable. This pattern brings several important changes: - Betting behavior becomes the new way of socializing. People express their positions through positions, which is more persuasive than mere verbal statements. - Market data reflects social concerns. Active trading targets often correspond to current hot topics. - Economic input becomes proof of credibility. People who are willing to take risks for their views are often more trustworthy. Future prediction platforms may evolve into new social tools. It shows not only what people are discussing, but also how many people really agree with a point of view and who is willing to support their opinion with practical actions.