12 YR TREND BROKEN. BTC should be a valued a LOT HIGHER relative to gold. Should be. IT'S NOT. The valuation trend broke down once QUANTUM came into awareness. Don't read this post if you want to stay high on hopium instead of seeing things as they are.

Likely, BTC will be patched with quantum resistant signatures. This doesn't fix the issue of 4M lost coins coming back into circulation. I'd say it's 75% chance that lost coins will not be frozen by a protocol hard fork.

So the risk-adjusted sale 4M coins need to be priced in. To put this in perspective, since Stategy started accumulating BTC in 2020 setting a trend, only a total of 2.8M BTC have been accumulated by all companies and spot ETFs. 4M LOST BTC = 8 years of enterprise accumulation

The market has started pricing in the return of these lost coins ahead of time. This process completes once the Q-Day risk is off the table. Until then BTCUSD will price in this risk. Q-Day is 5 to 15 years away... that's a long time trading with a cloud over its head.

Unfortunately the next 10 years is when BTC is most needed. It's the end of the long term debt cycle, it's where macro investors and sovereigns run to hard assets like gold to shelter from global debt deleveraging. Hence gold moons without BTC.