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I don't care if you disagree with the conclusion of this data because you want to focus on the CME FedWatch Tool or Polymarket or Kalshi.
You can have your bias.
But this is the objective truth.
If you want to dig your head in the sand & pretend it doesn't matter, that's fine.
Aug 24, 17:58
The super power with monetary policy forecasting is the combination of the 1M & 3M Treasury yield, relative to the Fed funds rate.
🔵 US01MY
🔴 US03MY
🟢 EFFR
Right now, the market is saying cuts are likely within the next 3 months, but not likely within the next month.
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